Investor Bias - Overconfidence
In the psychological literature there is no precise definition of overconfidence. There are several findings that are often summarized as overconfidence. Under this view, which is the broadest possible that can be found in the literature, overconfidence can manifest itself in the following forms: miscalibration, the better than average effect, illusion of control, and unrealistic optimism. As an investor you might find yourself in such situations often and perhaps not realize that you are showing signs of overconfidence while making investment decisions. The trick is to realize it or to see it in others to make the most of an investment opportunity.
Miscalibration
A good starting point for a list of psychological factors that affect decision-making is miscalibration i.e overconfidence in our own abilities. Miscalibration Studies that analyze assessments of uncertain quantities using the fractile method usually find that people’s probability distributions are too tight.
For e.g. People are asked to answer questions with two answer alternatives. After that, they are asked to state the probability that their answer is correct. The usual finding is that for all questions assigned a given probability the proportion of correct answers is lower than the assigned probability. Meaning that people used to say they think their answer is correct while observations more often than not showed they were wrong.
A great number of psychological studies have demonstrated that test subjects regularly overestimate their abilities, especially relative to others. Studies also show that people tend to overestimate the accuracy of information. With respect to factual information, research subjects consistently overestimated the probability that their answer to a question was correct. People often tend to show, in experimental settings, excessive confidence about their own judgments. Lichtenstein, Fischhoff and Philips (1977) asked subjects to answer simple factual questions (e.g., “Is Florida the capital of Russia?”) and then asked them to give the probability that their answer was right: subjects tended to overestimate the probability that they were right, in response to a wide variety of questions.
Such studies have been criticized as merely reflecting nothing more than a difference between subjective and frequentist definitions of probability, i.e., critics claimed that individuals were simply reporting a subjective degree of certainty, not the fraction times they are right in such circumstances.
However, in reaction to such criticism, the experiment was repeated asking the subjects for probability odds that they are right and very clearly explaining what such odds mean, and even asking them to stake money on their answer. The overconfidence phenomenon persisted. Moreover, in cases where the subjects said they were certain they were right, they were in fact right only about 80% of the time: there is no interpretation of subjective probability that could reconcile this result with correct judgments.
Better than average effect
People genuinely think that they are above average. A Taylor and Brown document in their survey that people have unrealistically positive views of the self. One important manifestation is that people judge themselves as better than others with regard to skills or positive personality attributes. One of the most cited examples states that 82 % of a group of students rank themselves among the 30 percent of drivers with the highest driving safety (Svenson (1981)).
Illusion of control
Along with unrealistic optimism Illusion of control is another ovreconfidence barometer. Langer (1975) defines illusion of control as “an expectancy of a personal success probability inappropriately higher than the objective probability would warrant”. Closely related is the phenomenon of unrealistic optimism about future life events (Weinstein (1980)). Presson and Benassi (1996) note in their survey and meta-analysis that after Langer’s article was published, illusion of control “has become a catch phrase in studies in which researchers manipulate conditions that lead people to make nonveridical judgments of control, contingency, prediction ability, etc.” In other words, there is no precise definition of illusion of control in the psychological literature.
Most of the ‘illusion of control’ studies analyze how different manipulated variables such as choice, outcome sequence, task familiarity, or active involvement are related to illusion of control. Certain studies stress that almost all studies do not measure the degree of control. Instead, most studies measure prediction ability or judgments of contingency so that the studies suggest that the phrase “illusionary judgment” would better summarize the various operations of illusion of control in the literature although they admit that “there is some question as to whether illusion of control researchers have examined a single underlying construct.”
The Study of Overconfidence
The questions whether there are stable individual differences in the degree of overconfidence has long been unexplored. Recent psychological research tries to find out whether there are stable individual differences in reasoning or decision making competence.
Furthermore, the question whether the above mentioned concepts - miscalibration, the better than average effect, illusion of control, and unrealistic optimism - are related is mainly unexplored. Some argue that these manifestations are related , others argue that this need not to be the case or even deny a logical link.
Most of the studies that analyze these various facets of overconfidence try to figure out which variables or stimuli induce overconfidence and under which circumstances overconfidence is reduced. However, these studies do not analyze whether the above mentioned concepts are related.
All said and done I am sure all of us when we sit back and reflect have seen traces of overconfidence in our day to day decisions sometimes. And like I always say, investing decisions are no different from regular ones.
Image courtesy: StaneStane
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